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Big $8.80, Tournament, SB vs BB battle

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Big $8.80, Tournament, SB vs BB battle - Sun Oct 05, 2014, 03:58 AM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It is Big $8.80, I face a stupid 41BB all-in 3-bet shove. What to do here?

Clearly he doesn't have AA KK QQ, otherwise he will cry for action.



If I exclude those hands and take the hands that I think he will do such action with are below and I am ahead of those range. It's just a question if I want to play 55-45 fav with 46BB stack.



STATS :
 
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Sun Oct 05, 2014, 06:31 AM
(#2)
jokr02's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 82
[facepalm] fold we will be getting good spot than this later
 
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Mon Oct 06, 2014, 11:41 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
Hi adi,

I am not opposed to taking a 55-45 on a 46bb stack. In a slow structure I would tend to pass it, and in a fast one I would take it, but it's a matter of personal preference on how much variance you want to introduce to your game in terms of the slow structure.

All that being said, do I think we have a 55-45 here? No, not so much. The villain thus far has been tight, so I see no good reason to think he might shove small pairs rather than call 300 more on this depth of money. If you remove 22-88 from our ranging we become a dog to his shoving range. If you add back in some combos of KK and QQ at least it gets worse. What's an accurate range? I don't know, but crafting one favorable to 88 because it includes all smaller pockets seems ambitious to me. So I'd say our edge in this hand is at best undefined and at worst, negative. I would just fold here and move on.


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Mon Oct 06, 2014, 12:08 PM
(#4)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
If you are saying 88's is a fold so does 99, TT & JJ are a fold here, am I right? Coz 88-JJ are all flipping vs his entire shove range !
 
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Mon Oct 06, 2014, 12:15 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,801
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I'd call TT as it's in a true flip with the opp's range 88+,ATs+,KTs+,AQo+ (7% range in pokerstove). I'm using 7% due to the small number of hands.. in reality, it could be even tighter, as a player's 3-bet range is normally about half their PFR.

99 is a 56/43 dog, so I'd pass. 88 is a 60/40 dog, so it's a much easier fold.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Oct 06, 2014, 12:24 PM
(#6)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Thanks so only JJ+ is a call and AK also is a fold.
 
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Mon Oct 06, 2014, 02:55 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
John said he would call TT as it's a flip (49.8% vs that range he used, but we have an overlay from the pot). So he's also calling AK since it has almost 4% more equity vs that range than TT does (thanks to dominating all non paired hands in that range and only being crushed by AA/KK).

Personally I like JJ+/AK at most. I'm not sure the guy is shoving KTs/KJs,

Here's the way I sort of look at this type of spot. Villain is probably not a good player since this overbet shove of 41bb's doesn't seem good to me with any holding. So what does this bet generally mean from a poor player when they have 40+ bb's and can very comfortably defend vs. your SB raise with a call in position? There are 2 most likely things imo:

1) They are an over aggressive LAG or maniac
2) They have a desire to end the hand right there.

The villain has done nothing in the course of our 40 hand sample to think #1 is happening, he's actually been quite tight. So I would consider what range poor & tightish players take this "end it right there" mentality with... TT-QQ, AK, AQ are the most likely candidates. AA/KK could even qualify if he's taken some beats recently (especially KK if he's had it cracked by A-rag a few times today).

JJ+/AK is the range that plays profitably vs. this if I run it against TT-QQ, AK, AQ, KK(3 combos... out of the 12 total combos of KK/AA). Add into the equation that we have a decent stack to protect as well, and we could err on the side of caution and toss the marginal favs (JJ/AK) and only call off QQ+. Stealing from the SB with a good frequency and only calling off this tight is obviously exploitable, but I don't think we are getting exploited by a tight/bad villain in this spot.

Hope this helps.


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Mon Oct 06, 2014, 03:11 PM
(#8)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Stealing from the SB with a good frequency and only calling off this tight is obviously exploitable
I like this point you made, good statement. If they are re-stealing light that doesn't mean our stack off range will be just like a nit QQ+ & AK as if it's a normal hand played on a full table. But you are right he is a tight player will be playing hands like AQ AK 55-QQ like that which means I am flipping so in slow tournies we can avoid this flips with 43BB maybe if it was under 25BB that will be an okay call.
 
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Mon Oct 06, 2014, 03:31 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by adikumar2010 View Post
But you are right he is a tight player will be playing hands like AQ AK 55-QQ like that which means I am flipping
Again, no. In case I wasn't clear enough, I don't think he's playing 55-99 like this. I don't think calling with 88 would be good here.


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