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Think I got it wrong here

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Think I got it wrong here - Wed Oct 08, 2014, 05:34 AM
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Webbo62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2014
Posts: 357
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My instincts were telling me he was chasing the flush here and when the diamond came down on the end I was telling my self he had now made his hand so I checked but then I stupidly went and called him.
WHY
WHY
WHY
Sometimes I just seem to forget everything I have learnt,.

So much for my betting giving him incorrect odds lol, guess he doesn't read this page hehe.

Anyway I know the river call was a big mistake but I think I played it right upto that point, let me know your comments just don't laugh too much at my river play.



 
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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 05:44 AM
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Fishwick's Avatar
Since: Feb 2014
Posts: 55
I wouldn't kick yourself too much. You are trying to get value calls from a lot of hands I don't think you are really thinking about pricing out a flush draw which called a 2/3 pot on the flop with only one card to his flush. You can't put him on a flush draw and a straight draw unless you see his cards.

On the river had 8 diamond outs (not the king), and 3 further 7s (not the diamond), 3 further queens. 14 outs = around 28% equity on the turn. He's calling 25% of pot which quite large implied odds if he hits (although reverse implied odds against your best hands though), so I think his turn call is good, and easy for him.

I don't think his line looks like a flush draw, I'm not folding the river. You also can't worry about made straights because he shouldn't have those cards pre flop. You've checked, showing weakness and that you might be scared of the third card to the flush so I think a certain amount of the time he will be betting missed straight draws, weaker 10s or even two pairs (maybe he called pre with 78s, 89s).
 
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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 10:35 AM
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Hi Webbo62!

The problem here is the first action in the hand. KTo is nowhere near strong enough to be opening from UTG at a full table. Muck it preflop.

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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 10:39 AM
(#4)
Fishwick's Avatar
Since: Feb 2014
Posts: 55
But the rest?
 
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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 10:42 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishwick View Post
But the rest?
Standard bet flop, standard bet turn, fold river

but the key is.. I shouldn't see a flop here.

John (JWK24)


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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 10:47 AM
(#6)
Fishwick's Avatar
Since: Feb 2014
Posts: 55
Could you elaborate on why you fold the river please? I really don't see the range that you think he's getting there with that we need to be scared of.
 
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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 10:53 AM
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If the river wasn't a card that completes a straight or flush, then I'd call.

The opp in this hand hasn't taken a single aggressive action the entire hand (signifies they could be a calling station and early in a micro, there are tons of stations in them). When a station bets, they basically always got it and with the flush hitting, they'll almost always show up with a flush or slow-played full house here.

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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 10:58 AM
(#8)
Fishwick's Avatar
Since: Feb 2014
Posts: 55
But there's only one card to the flush on the flop so it doesn't seem very accurate to put the villain on that a high percentage of the time.

It seems a superficial hindsight analysis without assessing the ranges that can take each action and the proportion of each that will make the river bet.
 
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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 10:58 AM
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Fishwick's Avatar
Since: Feb 2014
Posts: 55
But there's only one card to the flush on the flop so it doesn't seem very accurate to put the villain on that a high percentage of the time.

It seems a superficial hindsight analysis without assessing the ranges that can take each action and the proportion of each that will make the river bet.
 
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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 11:05 AM
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In micros, especially early, the two largest ranges that unknown players can easily have are any A and any suited. I always need to be watching for these and label players immediately in my notes when they do so.

If there was a read provided on what the opp was playing, then I could possibly discount this from their range, but with no info and what looks to be a station, they can be in there with any pair, any draw.

I wouldn't rule out 7x or 9x of any of the 3 suits that hit on the flop.. they'll easily call and chase, so would any pair.

When the diamond hits on the turn, the heart and club combos might fold, might chase the straight.. but I now need to watch out for a diamond river.

When the diamond hits and the passive opp bombs the river, this needs to be setting off every alarm in the building to me.

John (JWK24)


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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 11:10 AM
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Webbo62's Avatar
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Thats the worst of it JWK every alarm was going off in my head and I still went and called him, just don't know why I did it.
 
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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 11:13 AM
(#12)
Fishwick's Avatar
Since: Feb 2014
Posts: 55
Thanks.

I still think there are enough combinations that are still there by the river who either have missed a straight draw and are trying to pounce on our weakness with a bluff (they could put us on a missed draw when we check), or betting a weaker hand for 'value' (including the less likely 10x). A lot because I think chasing the flush needing runner runner to a fair sized bet is bad (although not in this case because of the straight outs and implied odds but we can't know that).

There should be enough that I will be ahead >25% of the time, which is all we need to be for the call to be profitable.
 
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Wed Oct 08, 2014, 11:15 AM
(#13)
Fishwick's Avatar
Since: Feb 2014
Posts: 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Webbo62 View Post
Thats the worst of it JWK every alarm was going off in my head and I still went and called him, just don't know why I did it.
You can fold every time 3 of a suit comes out, but there are 4 suits in a pack so it's not going to be good to do so.
 

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