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Can I go for re-steal?

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Can I go for re-steal? - Thu Oct 16, 2014, 02:29 PM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It is $3.30 KO MTT with around 450 runners. 10mins regular blind structure and 3000 starting stack. It also has $0.50 bounty on every player.

Should I call or fold or resteal/3-bet shove?

But if I go for the re-steal you can see that he never ever folds to a 3-bet no matter what !

STATS :
 
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Thu Oct 16, 2014, 04:26 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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Hi adikumar2010!

With KTo and a button open from a 21% opening range (I'm using his PFR instead of just buttons as the quantity is too small to make the button number meaningful), I'm a 57-43 dog in the hand, if I would shove and they call. The key stat here is... how often will this guy fold, as I need to get enough folds to turn this into a +EV play if I want to shove as a re-steal.

If the opp calls every time, my expected return is 5747 chips or -877. To cover this and make it breakeven, I need to have the opp fold to a shove 48.7% (877/1800).

Needing to have this high of a fold % is not very realistic (would expect to get folds between 1/4 and 1/3 of the time).. so a re-steal is -EV play and I need to fold.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Oct 17, 2014, 01:41 AM
(#3)
Nataraj1's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 573
It would only be a re-steal if you have fold equity, in which case the cards barely matter. Not sure there's great fold equity here as the opp doesn't have an ideal re-steal target stack.
 
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Fri Oct 17, 2014, 08:12 AM
(#4)
Tonk Shuffle's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 618
I will make the argument in favour of shoving, though if he calls you are probably flipping. With one important caveat: I do not know what the 'flow' of the game was like, I wasn't there. I'm guessing your gut said, "Shove," but you folded instead. (I hope you didn't shove, and he called you with KJo - that would have been cruel.) A very influential factor here may be a timing tell. If he auto-clicks his button raises when action is folded to him, then he may be doing this fairly loosely. Consider that in general, the faster people act, the more likely they are playing on 'auto-pilot.'

Now for the stats:

+Agreed that the hand sample on him is too small. This is another reason trust game flow.
+At this next point I have to disagree with John, because he does seem to like his button. His button VPIP is 7/7: 100%. He called 4/7, and opened the other 3/7. If you remove his button stats from his over-all stats, he is significantly tighter. You are actually closer to being a 58% favourite against his 'perceived' range. The more you let him steal, the less fold equity you will have as you blind down. Win or lose, at some point you have make a stand.
+The cut-off was 0/0/0 over 70 hands. I assume he was sitting out. In fact, there are 2 players sitting out. Is this correct? Then we should switch to 6-max strategy.
+He did not fold to 3bet/4bet (0/2) - were these two of the three hands that he when to showdown (and won) with? If so, then you may have more fold equity than the stats indicate. I assume he had very strong hands in those instances.
+Your stats are 12/9/0 AF 1.7; your perceived range is somewhat tight if there are only six active players at the table. Where you card dead this game? A shove here would absolutely indicate a strong holding.
+Did he open 3X consistently, or did he adjust his openings? This can also be a tell. Some people play in reverse, and bet smaller when they actually want you to call. Others play their big hands big.
+ Does the knockout format encourage larger stacks to call off light?

What happened? I hope you won the hand, and the tournament.

Last edited by Tonk Shuffle; Fri Oct 17, 2014 at 08:13 AM.. Reason: spelling
 
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Fri Oct 17, 2014, 09:57 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonk Shuffle View Post
His button VPIP is 7/7: 100%. He called 4/7, and opened the other 3/7.
Hi Tonk,

That's not how it works, those stats aren't cumulative they are inclusive. He voluntarily put $ in the pot 4/7 times from the button... 3 of those times for a raise, and once for a call.

I agree that using his straight PFR is too tight for a button open, it's highly likely he's opening wider, but the sample size is way too small to know how much. What I like to do is estimate on what I think is the conservative side... in this spot I'd guess 30% and just go from there.

Good points about game flow and timing. I also think we need to note if this guy always opens for 3x or not. It's a large open for a short stacked MTT situation, and can often be an indicator of real strength if it's not their standard sizing they use in all situations.

Good points about fold equity... the tongue in cheek comment that he will never fold to a 3B if true, would mean you've answered your own question... no, you can not steal from someone who never folds! Then the correct question is can we shove for value.

Obv he folds some of the time, how much we don't know... I prefer to pass the KTo here vs. a 3x open as I think we should get some decent steal opps later if not better hand situations as well, but if you play around with the numbers you find the math is close and tbh shoving or folding isn't going to be a gross mistake either way until you start moving the % guesses to extreme ends.


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Fri Oct 17, 2014, 11:00 AM
(#6)
simonrdr's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 437
Also, unless that is their standard open, I would be concerned with a 3x raise on the button.
 
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Fri Oct 17, 2014, 01:09 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Such an interesting spot - was trying to think of the alternatives, like ...

1. What hands might be good enough to shove with in this spot?
2. Is calling an option (guess, no? Vs a min-raise, guess is it still better to shove or fold)?
3. Better to try shoving into the same-sized stacks on the left (if the cards are good)?
4. Would trying to steal on 17bbs be too risky/spewy vs the loose passive on the left who seems to like to call?
5. Mostly just wait for better cards?
 

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