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3.5$ - 45p - mirror analysis

3.5$ - 45p - mirror analysis - Sat Oct 18, 2014, 12:53 PM
shoim's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 180
Hey guys,

Please assume read less hand.
Playing this hand and analyzing revealed my error (that lead on the flop is egregious).
But then I ran an analysis from my opp point of view and against my action his mistake OTT makes for way bigger mistake.
I would like to know 2 things about my conclusions here :
1. It was better to check/raise OTF instead of leading (my plan is to take the pot here, don't plan to go to showdown)
2. From my opp point of view, if I was him, a fold OTT is optimal.
Hope this is not awkward

PokerStars - $3.19+$0.31|15/30 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 1,440
MP+1: 3,015
CO: 2,985
BTN: 1,245
Hero (SB): 1,505
BB: 1,470
UTG: 1,395
UTG+1: 1,840

Hero posts SB 15, BB posts BB 30

Pre Flop: (pot: 45) Hero has J Q

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 90, Hero calls 75, fold

Flop: (210, 2 players) 4 A 8
Hero bets 105, BTN calls 105

Turn: (420, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 210, BTN raises to 1,050 and is all-in, Hero calls 840

River: (2,520, 2 players) 5

Click to show hidden text

Thanks and regards,
Sat Oct 18, 2014, 05:06 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
Hi shoim!

I think your thought process in looking back at it is pretty good.

I really don't want to lead the flop here. If I had Ax, I'd 3-bet preflop since I'm out of position. It's not really in my range, but Ax is squarely in the opp's range since they raised. With Ax not really being in my range, if I do lead this flop, it's an easy play for the opp to call or raise if they have an A or a pair. I'm check/folding the flop here as the opp can easily have Ax or a pair and if so, I don't have many outs and may be drawing dead.

The turn helps us, but what can we credibly represent with the 9? We said we have a hand by betting on the flop, and the 9 doesn't hurt us. Only 44 and maybe 88 would fit, but 88 is probably 3-betting preflop too, so there isn't much in our range that this bet makes sense for.
If I see the turn (which I would not), I'm going to check and only call if the odds make sense to. I have 9 outs to the flush and 3 more to a T for a gutterball straight, so if my pot equity to call is 24% or less I can call.. if not, I need to fold.
As played, it's 33.3% pot equity to call, so its a fold as I expect to lose 9% of my chips each and every time that I call.

After seeing what the button has, I agree with their line in the hand. They raise TT preflop (totally standard), then call on the flop (I shouldn't have an ace, as I should raise with it preflop and if I don't have an ace, their TT is still the best hand). On the turn, this is a brick for everything other than 99, so if they were ahead on the flop, they're still ahead on the turn and need to shove in order to price out a flush draw.

Hope this helps and good luck on the tables.

John (JWK24)

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