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Very tough spot preflop with baby stack

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Very tough spot preflop with baby stack - Wed Oct 22, 2014, 02:00 PM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It is $3.30 KO MTT with around 450 runners. 10mins regular blind structure and 3000 starting stack. It also has $0.50 bounty on every player.

I was clearly shoving over the 2-bet but now someone just 3-bet jam his 22bb stack which should be like good hands it's just imaginary assumption (44+, AJ+, KQs)

What should I do here?

 
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Wed Oct 22, 2014, 11:27 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
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Hi adikumar2010!

In this hand, both opps are basically unknowns. Yes, they both have 30+% VPIP's, but with only 11 hands, it may or not be a realistic number.

For the initial opener, I'd go with a default range of about 15-20%. They're in mid position, so they may be closer to 20% than to 15%.

For the button, just about any realistic raise pot-commits this player, so I think their range is much wider than normal here. We have them at a 9% PFR and I think they're probably at least this wide here, maybe wider. For example, if it folded to this opp on the button, they could actually shove about 32% of hands profitably! With the min-raise open in front of them, this will tighten their range some, but they can do this wider than normal.

If I'm just up against anything near a 9% range (88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo) then I'm flipping against this opp and with 10BB.. I'll gladly play the hand. If they're wider, I can even be the favorite against them.

If I end up against both opps (using 15% for the first opp and 9% for the other to be on the conservative side) then I have 32.9% equity in my 99... which makes this a +EV spot. If their ranges are wider, it's an even better spot for me.

Since I'm +EV against either opp individually and also in a 3-way hand with them... I'm shoving and if the BB wakes up with a monster, then so be it.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

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Thu Oct 23, 2014, 03:59 AM
(#3)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
JWK why I think it's a fold, I got some data for you.

See if the button player is on the loose end then's its a flip at best, I gave him as wide range as possible:



But if the button is shoving normal range like a tight player then I am behind, I gave him legit 3-bet shove range:



* One more thing I want you to tell me plz, what if I had a stack of 3k or more like 15BB or more can we pass it and wait few hands to find some easy shove spots or will you still shove with 15-22BB in this same hand?
 
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Thu Oct 23, 2014, 08:20 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
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Hi adikumar2010!

You really need to stop cooking the opp's ranges to try and get the result that you want. If the button is looser, they do not even remotely have the range you put in. Your 'loose' range is even tighter than a standard opp.

I have no clue where your 55+ AJs+ KQs+ AJo+ range comes from, but that's an abnormal 8% range and is even tighter than a normal opp.. that is NOT even close to a loose range.

For s standard unknown opp (I normally use a 10% range but will use 9% since that's the opp's PFR) is 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo. Against this opp, I have 46.5% equity.

On the button's stack size (re-steal stack), if it's a smarter opp, they should be at least at 15%, maybe even up to 20%-25%. If I put in a 15% range, which is 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo, I'm a 51.3% favorite. If they are over 15%... then I'm an even larger favorite.

If the opp is a tight player (not known and definitely not going with this from their 36VPIP even though the quantity is small), they're still 3-betting with about a 6% range, which is 88+,ATs+,KQs,AKo. Against a tighter than normal range, I'm at 40-60 per pokerstove, so it's a marginal play and at 10BB, I'll take a marginal situation since I'm so short.

If I had a larger stack (re-steal stack instead of shove stack), then I would be more likely to pass on this since I don't have a read. However, if the button was known to be looser, I'd still go, even at 20BB.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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