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comments welcome ||||||||||||| - Wed Dec 11, 2002, 06:52 PM
(#1)
Deleted user
hi fellow students and freinds...
as some of you might know, it is rare that i post in the forum, but i often read and keep upto date with your ideas , tales and comments.

however, i have noticed some very suspect things (suspect to me in my opinion) and i would like your views on this (including mark/tina etc)...here goes

has the software or format of the games changed in anyway...?

i stopped playing at paradise poker because of the miracle cards players kept hitting after they had raised and raised or called and called all-in. Then i was informed that their software was shall we say, liberal...designed to create more pots etc.
Well i have noticed a similar pattern here over the last 3 weeks...and i have been watching games that im not involved in, so as to form an unbiased opinion.
It has got to the stage where you can nearly predict the card(s) that are going to come and rescue the all-in player...it seems the worse the call or cards the more likely the massive outdraws. i was trying to put reason to it and the only thing i could guess was that, maybe the software has been somewhat relaxed to give the bad players more of a chance in games (so as not to get disheartened ? ) and maybe to persuade more players to join ?....im not sure.

one thing i am sure of though is this, we have all had,seen and heard of bad beats..and there is a lot of games played here so logically a lot of bad beats..but (imo) it is bordering on ridiculas now...there is no way in real games (something i play a lot of and with some of the best) that these bad calls/raises etc are rewarded so frequently.
it reminds me of a story once, a man gets caught up in a rain storm, and when he gets home he is dry, how come said his wife, oh i found an umbrella he says..the next morning he goes out and the downpour is still continuing, dont forget the umbrella his wife says, ..
oh, i dont need it he says, im sure ill find another....there is a lot of umbrellas being found on this site lately, im thinking of going out myself to find one.....your views please..steve
 
Old
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Wed Dec 11, 2002, 06:57 PM
(#2)
Deleted user
The conspiracy theories started popping up with more frequency after the software update where the turn and river cards were turned over slowly in an all-in situation. Nothing has changed with the way the cards are dealt, you just see how those runner runner miracles get there a lot more easily.

As far as it happening a lot more here than in your "live play" experience...

The fact that this is a tournament structure with a great number of the tourneys being NL and PL you see a LOT more all in hands here than you will see in a ring game.
 
Old
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Wed Dec 11, 2002, 07:19 PM
(#3)
Deleted user
I seemed to think that I saw A-A and K-K alot more than I ever do in a real Casino. Sometimes Ill get A-A 3-4 times in one day on here.

Maybe it's because I play alot more hands on here.
Just my opinion.
 
Old
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Wed Dec 11, 2002, 07:46 PM
(#4)
Deleted user
roach, im not talking about ring games....its nothing to do with seeing the cards in all-in situations either.....ill give you an excample.
i have just played a sat after posting this and guess what...
i raise with K-J suited..i get called with 5-7 off suit...flop gives him a 7 , i bet little he calls to the end and takes it..not much damage to me
next hand i get AK ..same player has flat called , i raise all in to take the pot right there...he calls with A-10 (not bad hand but not a call all-in raise of over 2K early in sat after only flat calling first, its not as if you slow play A-10 hopeing for a raise) anyway we hit the A on flop and no help for him on turn..then 10 on river..im out early in sat. 8th
same thing has happened 4 times tonight....i hyad over 76% for 16 sats untill tonight..JJ cracked by KQ.....9-10 on flop,,,J on river...
QQ cracked after i raised a low flop and got called (both all in) 1 club on flop..followed by 2 more to give back door flush...and on and on..
i play a lot of competitions and do very well..it doesnt happen that easy in them..
 
Old
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Wed Dec 11, 2002, 07:53 PM
(#5)
Deleted user
Nope, nothing has changed. We just get to see people's cards once they are all-in. So we are more aware of the miracle card(s). It happens here about as often as it happens live, but we (at least I do and I suspect most people) play here more often than we do in a B&M casino, so we see it a lot more often here.

Peace, Starrs LSOGC

PS. I could go on and on about people hitting miracles in the first 6 months here at PSO and I could talk for hours about people with one, two and three outs hitting in live play including several set over sets turning into quads for the 1 outer. But it would be pretty boring.
 
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Conspiracy Theories - Wed Dec 11, 2002, 08:04 PM
(#6)
Deleted user
Steve, I have a great deal of respect for your poker ability and game. That said, I don't think there is anything to the "manipulated deal/conspiracy" theories. For some good (read: hilarious) reading on this subject, try RGP or 2+2 Forums. About thrice a week someone will post on those Forums that On-Line Poker Site 'X' software must be rigged because of some onesy/twosy annecdotal evidence. Until someone can provide me hard data I can analyze (i.e. say 200,00 hands in a row) and compare to expected results, I won't believe it. Of course, if the cards were not completely random we would never know for sure......I think a much more serious "cheating" issue with on-line Poker is the collusion problem and how On-Line Casinos either do or don't deal with it.

What you do see in on-line poker is a tremendous amount more of hands. I believe that someone once put it at 10-1 hands per hour then you do live. Couple that with the facts that it is soooo easy to click the all-in button and now the cards are shown on the all-ins, and i think you have why it "appears" that there are more badbeats.
 
Old
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Wed Dec 11, 2002, 08:28 PM
(#7)
Deleted user
I played three tournaments today, got knocked out three times by a three-out Q on the river in each one.

Only one was at PSO though. No conspiracy suspected, just me running badly for a while. Gotta get it out of my system.

I think it is like the previous caller said, more hands, more bad beats. I imagine that I see more single suited flops, but haven't done the math on it to prove it, probably just a mirage.

Same thing with flops like AAA, 333, 777, seems like I see a lot of those, but I have seen them a couple times in casinos in much fewer hands.

Gojacketz
 
Old
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Wed Dec 11, 2002, 11:30 PM
(#8)
Deleted user
:idea: I suspect simply the random deal and flop of the cards. However, would it not be nice to have the powers that be state empathically that, the cards are random. I would believe Mark if he came out and stated that once and for all.

Or maybe he already has. ops:
 
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Thu Dec 12, 2002, 09:40 AM
(#9)
Deleted user
the reason for such lucky breaks is fairly obvious in my opinion. We are not playing for real money, and there are many here who do not care about rankings - therefore there are players with "nothing" to lose who will play any two cards. You don't see this in real games because there are few out there who would take such chances with real money
 
Old
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Thu Dec 12, 2002, 10:14 AM
(#10)
Deleted user
Yes Beeker you have a point there about Mark addressing this issue
I once posted something similar to this issue and Mark or no one from the school would address it. Maybe they think that there is
no reason to do so. But there seems to be a lot of questions
concerning the randomness of the generator. I do sincerely believe
that some how the software is action oriented, maybe not here but
at other sites. More big hands means more rake at other sites.
Mark could you please address this issue and go on record.
Thank You
Tom
 
Old
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Thu Dec 12, 2002, 10:53 AM
(#11)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Actually Mark and the PSO Staff have addressed this issue, but it was on the old forum and no longer available.

I would like to see the explanation added to the site (in the Help, Reference or Software section). The description put forward was sufficient to allay any concerns I might have had.
 
Old
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Thu Dec 12, 2002, 01:40 PM
(#12)
Deleted user
It's easy.

The "bad beats" register much more strongly than the "righteous victories".

That's all

Take care :wink:
 
Old
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Thu Dec 12, 2002, 02:15 PM
(#13)
Deleted user
having just made my 2nd trip to a casino i cant speak from any great experiance but we are playing 2 times as many hands as we do in live game hence we see more hands we see more beats as for big drawing hands getting beat by small drawing hands it was happening every other hand when i played in B&M although i never once saw AA v a PP apart from the 77 i folded in rebuy period on money i do see PP v PP lower pair making a set and AK v A rag with rag hitting.

i dont think its the software i think its more to do with the fact of the speed of hands.
 
Old
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Thu Dec 12, 2002, 04:51 PM
(#14)
Deleted user
hurricane something to think about, i hold qj, flop is 8810o, turn 9 i go all in called by k8o, wow what appears on the riv????? a 10 lol if u ever get a response to your post from any pso staff let us know, very doubtful though. jokerAA
 
Old
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Thu Dec 12, 2002, 05:07 PM
(#15)
Deleted user
JokerAA your JQ will lose to K8 with a flop of 88109 22 out of every 100 times on the river.

There is absolutely nothing worthy to remember for you the 78 times that you win. What sticks in your mind is every time you lose. While you are a big favorite here, 22% is a large enough percentage to make you feel like you are always getting sucked out on.
 
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Mark and Tina Respond - Thu Dec 12, 2002, 05:10 PM
(#16)
Deleted user
Below is a discussion of some of the common issues encountered when shuffling decks of cards on a computer. It addresses some of the commonly used algorithms and their flaws, and then shares the superior solution we use at PokerSchool/PokerPages to shuffle decks of cards.

We want you to know the algorithms we use for generating random numbers and shuffling cards so you have all the confidence that you are using world class solutions when you play at PokerSchool/PokerPages

Background:

Given a 52-card deck, there are over 8.065817517 x 1067 possible unique sequences (approx. 8 x 1067, or 2225) to an entire deck. This is an enormous number, which when spelled out looks like this very long number:

80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975 ,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000.

To understand why so many 52-card deck sequences are possible, think of it this way: the first card in the deck is one of 52 possible cards, the second is one of the remaining 51 cards, the third is one of the remaining 50, etc. So, for each of the 52 possible first cards, there are 51 possible second cards, and for each of the 52 x 51 first pairs of cards, there are 50 possible third cards. Continue with this logic to the last card, and you get: 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 ... x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 possible card sequences (expressed mathematically as 52!, or 52 factorial) which when multiplied out, yields the huge number shown above.

In order to generate all the unique sequences possible in a 52-card deck, a random-number generation algorithm must be able to yield at least 52! unique random number sequences.

Random Number Generator

To ensure we can randomly generate all the unique sequences possible in a 52-card deck, we use the widely accepted and widely utilized Mersenne Twister PRNG (described at: wikipedia.org/wiki/Mersenne_Twister ), invented by Makoto Matsumoto and Takuji Nishimura in 1997.
With increased exposure over the past few years, The Mersenne Twister PRNG is increasingly accepted as the random number generator of choice for all statistical simulations and generative modeling, especially because it overcomes the shortcomings of prior pseudorandom number generators (PRNG).

Prior Shortcomings:

Many older random sequence algorithms yield far less than the number of possible unique sequences of a 52-card deck. You often see only 216, or 65,536 unique sequences generated by older RNGs, which is far short of the approximately 2225 needed to cover all possible sequences in a 52-card deck.

Another shortcoming of prior PRNGs is guaranteed periodicity - it is certain that if the generator uses only a fixed amount of memory, then given a sufficient number of iterations, the generator will revisit the same internal state twice, after which it will repeat forever. A generator that isn't periodic can be designed, but its memory requirements would slowly grow as it ran. In addition, a PRNG can be started from an arbitrary starting point, or seed state, and will always produce an identical sequence from that point on. Also, in practice, many prior PRNGs exhibit artifacts which can cause them to fail statistical significance tests. These include:
· Shorter than expected periods for some seed- states
· Poor dimensional distribution
· Successive values may not be independent
· Some bits are more random than others
· Lack of uniformity

What PokerSchool/PokerPages Uses:

The invention of the Mersenne Twister algorithm, by Makoto Matsumoto and Takuji Nishimura in 1997, avoids most of the problems that prior deterministic algorithms had.

The Mersenne Twister:

· Has a colossal period of 219937-1 iterations, which is far more than the number needed to generate the number of possible unique sequences of card decks (approx. 2225 compared to the Mersenne Twister's 219937 ).
· Accepts a seed of up to 19,968 bits. Other sites think a 2016 bit seed is overkill, we go much farther with 19,968 bits.
· Has a very high order of dimensional equidistribution. In fact, it is proven to be equidistributed in 623 dimensions (for 32-bit values). Note that this means, by default, that there is negligible serial correlation between successive values in the output sequence.
· Runs faster than all but the least statistically desirable generators.
· Is statistically random in all the bits of its output.
The above is why, as people have learned about the Mersenne Twister PRNG, that it has increasingly been accepted as the random number generator of choice for all statistical simulations and generative modeling. It's also why PokerSchool/PokerPages chose to use the Mersenne Twister PRNG.
Reference:
· M. Matsumoto and T. Nishimura, Mersenne twister: A 623-dimensionally equidistributed uniform pseudorandom number generator, ACM Trans. on Modeling and Computer Simulations, 1998.

Shuffling of Cards

The use of a fair and unpredictable shuffle algorithm is critical to a fair poker game. The three goals of a shuffling algorithm are: correctness, lack of bias, and lack of predictability.
Correctness means that cards don't appear more than once. Lack of bias means that without knowledge of the state of the random-number generator, at any given time when there are N cards remaining in the deck, the likelihood of any given card being chosen is 1/N. And Lack of predictability means that when denied direct access to the state of the random number generator, an observer will not be able to predict the next card with a likelihood greater than 1/N (or less than 1/N either).

The Shuffle:

PokerSchool/PokerPages uses an incremental Knuth shuffle. The problem some other sites have noted with the Knuth shuffle (introduction of a bias towards lower numbers) is actually a problem with their random_range function used to generate a number between 0 and 51 from the number their PRNG gave them, which is why they needed to shuffle several times.

In our case, our PRNG (the Mersenne Twister) gives us a random number between 0 and 2^32 - 1 (a bit over 4 billion). We also do not use the random_range function others use. We use one which is free of bias, and uses a simple and reliable algorithm. For example, if we need a random number in the range 0-25: the seed is now between 1 and 2 to the 19,968 power.

-- We take 5 random bits and convert them to a random number 0-31. This is valid because the Mersenne Twister PRNG is statistically random in all the bits of its output.
-- If this number is greater than 25 we just discard all 5 bits and repeat the process

This method is not affected by biases related to modulus operation for generation of random numbers that are not 2n, n = 1,2,...

So the net of the above is that there's no need for us to shuffle multiple times.

Because PokerSchool/PokerPages uses the Mersenne Twister PRNG and the incremental Knuth shuffle (with a range function that is free of bias) you are guaranteed that you will receive a 'true' shuffle for any given hand.


For those of you that can absorb this, i hope you understand it and can give your comments

Regards
Tina and Mark
 
Old
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Thu Dec 12, 2002, 05:24 PM
(#17)
Deleted user
YEAH, WHAT TINA SAID!!!!!!!!
 
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Thu Dec 12, 2002, 05:31 PM
(#18)
Deleted user
Rosita said:

Quote:
The "bad beats" register much more strongly than the "righteous victories".

Amen, Brother Rosi.

Randy
 
Old
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Sat Dec 14, 2002, 03:46 PM
(#19)
Deleted user
I have no idea what all that means nor do i have either the intelligence nor the time to find out what it does mean. If something is put in front of my that is way over my head then i guess i have to believe it. However, Hurricane I posted almost the same topic as you a couple of weeks ago( The Horse Crap Program). Where I to said i could almost predict the way i would lose every time. To me and i know i'm probably way off here but i'll say it anyway, I think that the program will spit out a hand to eliminate someone when it needs to balance the tables due to time restrictions. I have been noticing that most of my bust outs when i'm favoured in the hand come and right after i see "Balancing Tables" on the screen. To justify my thoughts I have been keeping mental notes of seeing the same happen to other players. Along with the many other strategies i am trying to learn which other members have gracfully helped me with another strategy I use is not to enter hands no matter what my cards are including AA KK etc when there are the following amounts of players remaining according to the lobby-51, 41, 32, 31, 22, 21, 12, 11. Its probably my superstitions that the program always whats to screw me( why me PSO?) but thats my best way to fight it. I do find it working though.

Thief 21
 
Old
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Sat Dec 14, 2002, 07:12 PM
(#20)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
I am convinced that the shuffling algorithim is random. A recent sampling of flush draws revealed that exactly 10% of my draws hit by the river. However 60% of my opponents flush draws filled in by the river. The average of 35% is the proper value and indicates that all is well with the randomness of the shuffle.

:wink:
 

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