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The Odds, and flush draws.

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The Odds, and flush draws. - Tue Dec 17, 2002, 07:01 PM
(#1)
Deleted user
Hi all,

Firstly, where can I find a scource (here?), for a breakdown of odds in all their different possibilities?
Purely odd/statistics not (NOT) opinions, as theories only work on paper, not people.

Secondly, completely ignoring that point I would be interested in your opinions on how I play my flush draws....
If I hit 4 of a suit on flop, and there is a decent pot, I will bet big if not all my chips, hoping to buy the pot, and the backup of a 40% nut flush draw if I do get called.
Do you consider this sound or flawed (ignoring paired flop of course).
I like it as it doesn't rely on opponents playing the "right" way.

Thanks in advance

Zeb
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2002, 07:09 PM
(#2)
Deleted user
Zeb,

The odds of making a flush draw with two cards to come are only
35%, not 40% as you state in your post.

It's necessary to mix up one's play by leading with a big draw in NL/PL now and again, but if you make this a habit, observant opponents will start playing back at you. What do you do then? Do you really want to risk all your chips against a made hand, when you only get there one-third of the time?

Alan
 
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Presumption - Tue Dec 17, 2002, 07:25 PM
(#3)
Deleted user
Thanks depraved,

I actually would like players to think whenever I raise big when 2 of a suit hits flop, I am drawing a 35%(thanks) shot.
But I'm not sure it occurs enough to set a pattern, and I do try to mix it up.
Though I suppose anyone who reads this now knows...lol.

I noticed that J Gardner lost the WSOP with this play also.

This also proves I need the stats as I thought the odds were slightly over 40%, 1 in 3 bit more sobering. Will take it into account in future.

Zeb
 
Old
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Tue Dec 17, 2002, 07:36 PM
(#4)
Deleted user
Zeb,

Trumpin Joe has the odds there is usually a link to them at the end of his posts. They are a little confusing someone first trying to understand them (me) but maybe they will be easy for you.

Thief 21
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2002, 09:16 PM
(#5)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Caro's Hold'Em Statistics

The schedule spreadseet in my sig has a tab with post-flop drawing odds.

Theory of Sucking Out According to Abdul

Abdul's stuff is geared to limit ring games and is helpful in understanding the concept of chasing. Application to NLHE tourneys is basically DON'T unless you are desparate or it is VERY deep money early on. Knowing the why's of someting is essential to an understanding the why not however.
 
Old
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Wed Dec 18, 2002, 09:25 PM
(#6)
Deleted user
TrumpinJoe

Please could you explain the 8.5 outs to improve a thre of a kind in the spreadsheet

Thanks

James
 
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Thu Dec 19, 2002, 07:41 AM
(#7)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Say you hold 8-8 and the flop comes A-T-8. On the turn you have 7 outs to improve (1-8, 3-A's, 3-T's). When blank falls on the turn (say a 3) you pick up 3 more outs (the other 3-3's) on the river for 10 outs. The average of 7 and 10 is 8.5.

If you have T-9 in you hand and the flop come 9-9-2 you still have 7 outs on the turn (1-9, 3-T's and 3-2's) and pick up three more when on the river when you don't hit.

So flopping a set or trips doesn't change the odds of improving, although it can affect they way you play the hand.
 

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